Delegate ramblings

So it appears that people have amnesia.  Seven months ago John McCain was the laughing stock of the free world because he was running for President and joined forces with the King of Liberalism, Ted Kennedy, to write a immigration bill that 85% of the people thought was a horrible idea.

Does McCain even try to fool the people with a phony apology, a momentary lapse in judgement?  Nope he blames us as being too stupid to understand.  Now he is the front runner in this race right.  Wrong, this year this race has less to do with winning early states and more to do with actual delegates.  Right now Romney has the delegate lead with 59.  It takes 1191 delegates to win the nomination and right now the guy that is leading has 59.  To listen to the media this race is over, the truth is that this race has a long way to go.

Fast forward to Florida, the only person in trouble is Rudy.  He has pinned his hopes on Florida for a while and if he can’t pull out a win there then he has a lot of work to do.  I won’t say he is done because this year I am not convinced anyone is out until the convention but he would have an uphill climb. 

Now if you look at Super Tuesday we have 21 states voting for the Republican nominee, that comes down to 1081 delegates that will be awarded on Fed 5 but no one candidate will win all those.  It is going to make the states that come after February 5th much more competitive.  There are others that have done the math and are looking at a convention that will be vastly different from ones in the past, it is possible that we may have four or five candidates that have varying totals between 500-600 delegates.

The bottom line is that campaigns that can continue to generate revenue will continue to be in play.  Every time Fred has asked supporters to fund the campaign, they have come through so Fred should press forward.  Romney will continue to go on because he can fund his campaign even if people don’t.  McCain needs a huge influx of cash because he had to borrow $3 million right before New Hampshire.  I know that donations have probably picked up since then but still he would need help.  Rudy hasn’t been bringing in much and needs Florida to help him generate cash to keep up, Huckabee has done well fundraising since his Iowa win but he spent most of it in SC and has an uphill battle, he’s not likely to do well in Florida will have to spend a lot to get 2nd or 3rd.

So don’t despair fellow Fredheads.  There are a lot of states left, many will award delegates in a winner take all format based on congressional districts, most are closed primaries meaning no democrats and independents mucking up the waters.