Where’s the Iowa bump for Romney?

I am just curious; here we are nearly a week after the Iowa straw poll. You remember the won that Romney bought for $3.5 Million. Well I am reviewing the polling and it appears I was wrong. I stated that Romney would probably get a bump out of Iowa but it would be short lived. Well according to the daily Rasmussen numbers Romney was running between 13% and 15% for 8/1 – 8/7, for 8/8 – 8/11 15% and 12%, for 8/12 – 8/17 14% - 15% (with one day at 16%). I thought this win was supposed to put Romney in the lead, at the very least he should have over taken Fred Thompson but he hasn’t. One thing that I find hilarious beyond belief is that coming out of Iowa who would you think would be the last guy to get a bump in the polls. Yep, McCain has gone from 9% and 10% in the week or so before Iowa to 14% after.

You go look at the RCP numbers and it doesn’t get any better for Romney. He is still chasing McCain and has a firm grasp on the fourth spot. With all the money Romney is spending he doesn’t seem to be making progress. Can he keep this up until January, I doubt it. If you look to the Southern States Fred is leading in the polls for SC, NC, GA, etc. Romney is going to need to find a way to start winning something meaningful because his current strategy isn’t working.

The Genius of Fred Thompson

David Broder has a piece in the Washington Post detailing a recent interview he had with Fred Thompson. I highly suggest everyone that can read should read this article. It comes with a lot of meat and potatoes for those that like real substance that we don’t see from the other 16-18 (or whatever the number is this week) candidates. Here are a few quotes from the article.

The approach Thompson says he’s contemplating is one that will step on many sensitive political toes. When he says “we’re getting a free ride” fighting a necessary war in Iraq with an undersized military establishment, “wearing out our people and equipment,” it sounds like a criticism of the president and the Pentagon.

When he says he would have opposed adding the prescription drug benefit to Medicare, “a $17 trillion add-on to a program that’s going bankrupt,” he is fighting the bipartisan judgment of the last Congress.

“Nobody in Congress or on either side in the presidential race wants to deal with it,” Thompson said. “So we just rock along and try to maintain the status quo. Republicans say keep the tax cuts; Democrats say keep the entitlements. And we become a less unified country in the process, with a tax code that has become an unholy mess, and all we do is tinker around the edges.”

I have a harder time seeing how anyone calling themself conservative can get behind anyone but Fred Thompson.  Ok enough of the quotes go read it for yourself. You’ll be glad you did!

Don’t Panic Fredheads!

I have read a lot of blogs lately that are disappointed that Fred hasn’t announced yet, supposedly he is losing ground because he is not formally in the race, etc. You guys have to understand; the primaries are five months away, it is not necessary to get into this race just for the sake of being in the race. Some of you must be watching politics for the first time because judging by some of the blogs I read and some of the comments I read from supposed Fred supporters I see a lot of idiots out there.

Now get a grip people, we have asked Fred to run, he’s obliging us and listening to people around the country. He’s assembling some very solid advisors; some folks that were solidly committed to other campaigns are moving to back Fred. What does he have to gain by getting in this race right now? NOTHING, ZIP, ZILCH, NADA, NONE! Can I make that any more plain for those of you that seem to think that Fred is losing support because he’s not in this race? Fred will get into this race when he thinks the time is right and I have said since March that getting into this race before September is complete idiocy.

Everyone though seemed to think that he should be in this race in May, in June, in July, in August. Why? So he could participate in the Ames, Iowa straw poll? That’s asinine! Romney’s been practically living in Iowa for seven months.  He has an enormous operation in Iowa.  For any top tier candidate to go in there would have been suicide; it’s like Rush Limbaugh trying to get elected Mayor of San Francisco. How bloody stupid does your campaign have to be to spend $3.5 million to win a meaningless straw poll? Big deal, Romney won, but you know what?  Now the top tier candidates can start spending some of the money they saved by going back to Iowa and start building an organization for the Caucus’ and I will bet Romney will not win the Iowa caucus.

Now for you spineless individuals that don’t have the intestinal fortitude to be patient and get behind the candidate that is clearly going to get in this race when it’s to HIS best advantage then take the Fred Thompson stickers off your car and replace them with Hillary stickers because it appears that you have the attention span of a gnat and I don’t want people like that dragging down this majority!

The Iowa Aftermath

So in the aftermath of the Iowa straw poll one thing is clear. Iowans have not made up their minds yet who they like, yes I know Romney won but with so few votes it’s hard to say that this was an overwhelming victory. Romney’s vote total would have placed him third in 1999 when the number of voters was nearly double the total of this year. How else can you view these results, the top two or three candidates don’t show and neither did the voters. So who benefits from the results in Iowa?

I think first and foremost you to give Mike Huckabee and Tom Tancredo their due. These two come into Iowa in the bottom tier struggling to get noticed and both leave Iowa in much better shape than when they showed up. Sam Brownback probably does ok too. He comes in third in Iowa but he still has a lot of work to do to overcome his mistakes from the immigration debate. As for the top tier Fred has to be pleased that he came out better than Rudy and McCain given that he hadn’t been there and had spent no money there.

So on to the losers. The top loser in this was Ron Paul, they file lawsuits to keep the voting from taking place, then they swarm the place and make a lot of noise and in the end his camp comes off like bunch on sniveling five year olds that didn’t get their way. Tommy Thompson has to be disappointed in a six place finish and rumor has it he may pack it in, he certainly didn’t figure to lose out to Tancredo and even with Ron Paul managing to place fifth that puts him near the bottom of the candidates that showed up for this thing. Last but not least is Duncan Hunter who I would have thought would shown better in Iowa and he put most of his eggs in that basket and coming in behind Fred Thompson and Rudy means that he’s probably done. That’s unfortunate because he’s a solid conservative and certainly better than some of the other candidates in this field.

So in the end Romney spends boat loads of money and has a mere 4516 votes to show for it which is fine. He won, he’ll maybe get a bump in the national polls because of it but I don’t think it gets him close to Fred or Rudy. We’re hearing that his fundraising is down and given the number of voters and the amount of money he spent he probably should have more to show for it. One thing is for certain Romney didn’t inspire a lot of people to come out and vote, could it be that the candidate they want to hear from wasn’t planning on being in Iowa until next week? It will be interesting to watch the Iowa state polls for the next few weeks and see how this pans out.

The Economics of Illegal Immigration

It’s been a while since I have felt compelled to write about illegal immigration but the issue is once again before us. The AP has a story how angry the farmers are that the federal government intends to start enforcing some of the immigration laws. How dare they actually want to enforce a law. Those of us that are pro 2^nd amendment only can dream that they would get the kind of enforcement of gun laws that illegal immigration gets but I digress. The story in question is centered around the San Joaquin Valley of California, this area produces much of the fruit and vegetables that feeds not only us but many other parts of the world as well. It is also an area that I am very familiar with as I was born and raised in the farming communities of San Joaquin Valley.

For many years immigrants have come north to harvest fruits and vegetables some legally, many illegally. We are now to believe that farmers can’t get by with legal workers, they cost too much, there aren’t enough of them, the excuses are endless. Yet the many of the illegal workers that have worked in this environment for decades have also been a drain on the resources of those communities. Much of the crime in these areas comes from them, the schools are filled with kids that don’t speak English but it is somehow thought of as cruel to suggest that we not educate children of illegal immigrants. They fill our hospitals, our jails, and our schools, but what solution do these farmers provide for these problems that they largely created. None, they believe that the low priced goods they provide should offset the problems that are created. If we use that logic then why not hold these farmers financially responsible for the crime their illegal employees create, the hospital bills they ring up, why not have these employers pay the cost to educate the kids of illegal immigrants? I know the idea is ludicrous but it illustrates my point, the answer we constantly get is that it will drive up prices, how so? Are we not paying these illegals minimum wage, are we not going to have enough minimum wage workers already here?

We already have a temporary worker program that has visas that are issued for instances like this. I (like a majority of Americans) fail to understand why we need to ignore laws for one group of people just because they perform a service cheaper than anyone else. If we need more temp workers then fine, prove to us there is a need, help secure the border, hire only legal workers. Many of the illegals will leave if there is no work and let them apply for a work visa and come back legally. We need to enforce the existing laws and let the free market determine the cost of goods, yes there are going to be a few spikes along the way but they will be minor and the market will balance out. Over regulation and the cost of fuel are more of a problem for farmers than the difference between legal and illegal workers, those items already affect the cost of goods sold today and until we find a way to keep fuel costs low, and reduce over burdensome regulation food costs are going to continue this roller coaster ride.

The Iowa Reality

As we approach the Iowa straw poll this weekend we have heard a great deal about how Romney is going to win this easily. Rudy had backed away, McCain has backed away, Rudy has been back in a little bit, Huckabee has been moving up, etc. This is all well and good but Romney has literally spent millions on Iowa, and has staked his entire campaign on it. The problem for him now is that most of the top tier has stayed out and so most won’t give Romney much of a benefit for winning Iowa. So now we are in a position of managing expectations, in all reality Romney should win this with a spread of 15-20% given the time he has spent there, the money he has spent there, and the polling that shows him doing well there.

So what happens if he doesn’t win by 15%? Is it less of a win, is it possible to win and have it be viewed as a failure? In politics, anything is possible. If Fred Thompson finishes within 5-10% of Mitt having spent virtually no money to do it then that will be a huge win for Fred and a really big problem for Mitt. Romney has staked his entire campaign on the premise that he is more conservative than Rudy or McCain and while that may be true he doesn’t come across as conservative to the people that matter most, conservatives. He says the right thing, he dances around every issue, he’s polished, etc. Basically he’s a smarter version of John Edwards but with all the polish and fancy suits will Iowans really get behind a moderate from Massachusetts?

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